Disgusted Independent Voters Could Shake Up NY Democrats’ Government

New York’s registered independent voters could cause a “political earthquake” in the state’s elections this fall — including the gubernatorial race, sources say, citing data from a recent Siena College poll.

Nearly a quarter of the state’s 13 million voters — nearly 3 million, or 23 percent — are registered as not affiliated with any political party.

That’s slightly more than the state’s 2.84 million registered Republicans, although Democrats still have a huge enrollment advantage. There are 6.47 million registered Democrats, or about one in two voters, in New York, according to the State Board of Elections.

Recent research has shown that given the number of New York independents — and what they had to say about the state of the state — incumbents, including Governor Kathy Hochul, could be in trouble.

According to the survey, 62% of independents believe the state is on the wrong path.

Meanwhile, the Democrat-controlled state Senate was viewed favorably by only 26% of surveyed registered independents, and the Democrat-controlled Assembly did not fare much better, with 34% of surveyed independents finding it favorably.

NYPD investigates shooting this morning at 283 E 4st., Mhtn.
In recent months, crime in New York has soared.
Robert Miller

To make matters worse, moderate and conservative Democrats do not always vote for the party’s candidate amid spikes in violent crime, which are a recent scourge again, and post-pandemic quality-of-life issues.

“There could be a political earthquake in New York,” predicted veteran political consultant Hank Sheinkopf.

“Republicans have a path to victory,” he said. “Crime is the most important issue among voters across the state. For independent voters, crime and government performance matter. The question is whether the Republicans can form an alliance and get the independents to come out.”

Independents polled were particularly negative about Democrat Hochul’s performance at work.

NYS Governor Kathy Hochul speaks at an event.
Governor Kathy Hochul scored poorly among surveyed independents.
Paul Martinka

About two-thirds of independents rated their government record to date as fair or poor. Hochul assumed the state’s top political office in August 2021 after former governor Andrew Cuomo resigned amid a sexual harassment scandal.

On specific issues, 74% of independents rated Hochul fair or poor at fighting crime, 72% fair or poor at its handling of the economy, 73% fair or poor at restoring confidence in the government, 71% fair at providing leadership and 61% fair or poor in recovery from COVID-19.

If Hochul is the Democratic Party candidate, 30% of independents said they would support her, while 48% said they would prefer someone else.

Only 38% of the group looked at Hochul favorably, 37% unfavorably, and the rest undecided.

A man examines his ballot paper before entering the voting booth at the polling station set up in the Robert Fullerton School gymnasium for the 2014 election.
Only 30% of independents said they would support Hochul if she becomes the Democratic Party candidate.
Stefan Jeremiah

Siena College researcher Steve Greenberg said it’s a tough environment for incumbents, and in New York that primarily means Democrats, who control all levels of state government and two-thirds of the congressional delegation.

He noted that the recent poll found that the percentage of voters who say New York is on the wrong track was the highest since 2010. Fifty-two percent said New York is on the wrong track in the recent poll, and just 36% said which is going in the right direction.

“Voters are generally not in a good mood. All candidates – particularly Democrats – can be in a world of pain,” Greenberg said.

U.S. Representative Lee Zeldin speaks to delegates and party officials gathered at the 2022 NYGOP Convention.
Representative Lee Zeldin is the alleged Republican candidate for governor.
AP/John Minchillo

Hochul, the presumptive representative of the Democratic Party, is the strong favorite to win her primary battle against two great rivals: Representative Tom Suozzi, running to her right as the law and order candidate, and city attorney Jumaane Williams, running for her. left.

The GOP candidates are Long Island Representative Lee Zeldin, the alleged representative, former Trump White House aide Andrew Giuliani, former Westchester County executive Rob Astorino and businessman Harry Wilson.

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